A mere 60 days ago when Morgan Rogers stood on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while Unai Emery scolded him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. At that point, with the team went six without a win, the question was whether Rogers' form were a sign or the source of Villa's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, however, the manager's outburst proved to be much more joyous. When the England international drilled in his second to reclaim his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician ripped off his jacket, spread his arms and roared. The team were on their way to a 10th successive win and after failing to win their initial half-dozen matches, now sit just three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Challengers?
That’s a particularly tough question to answer. Past precedent, the traditional standing of the club, argues against it. Furthermore, they've rarely been wholly dominant this season, while the positive results have piled up.
Per the data, in only two games has the team registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a team which has strung together 10 in a row, they look curiously susceptible – but right now the fine lines are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy appears to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent before hoping Rogers to rescue them with a couple of clinical strikes. This occurred at Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and again when facing the Red Devils.
The initial strike originated from a superb shot, curled precisely inside the upright from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal was essentially a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. Against United, Manchester United managed more shots and more shots on target. Villa have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival the club have to face as the season progresses. Rogers, surely, will not continue to blasting his shots into the top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists an alternative path in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures might still return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward might resume finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the performer he resembled in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs are set to return from injury, bolstering a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
This could contain the seeds for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Aston Villa would be third at Christmas. And most definitely back in October, few could imagine the midfielder now would be spearheading a championship pursuit while looking like a crucial England player.
This remarkable period must be cherished precisely because it feels so unlikely. As the hero stood in front of the home supporters when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. Such periods do not happen often and should be relished.
