Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
